On November 13th, 2025, WorldBoston hosted Dr. Rana Mitter for a critical installment of the Great Decisions series, focusing on the complex and ever-evolving relationship between the United States and China. In a talk titled “U.S. China Relations—What is Next?” Dr. Mitter, a renowned scholar of Chinese history and politics and ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School, guided the audience through the current state of “deep and unpredictable flux” between the two superpowers. He dissected the structural issues driving competition, the divergent languages used in diplomacy, and the potential future pathways for this most critical of bilateral relationships.
Dr. Mitter began by contrasting two pivotal moments in recent diplomacy: the tense, confrontational talks in Anchorage in March 2021 and the more recent, concerted effort to lower the temperature leading to the Biden-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in June 2023. He characterized the Anchorage meeting as a stage for “two monologues,” where both sides engaged in public criticism with little productive outcome. The 2023 meeting, while by no means resolving fundamental issues, represented a crucial step back from the brink, re-establishing a channel for emergency dialogue and managing escalations. The fragile improvement occurs against a backdrop of significant trade tensions, Dr. Mitter noted that the current White House’s perspective on massive trade deficits with China continues to fuel support for tariffs and a tough stance.
A key theme of the talk was the profound divergence in language and ideology. Dr. Mitter highlighted how U.S. officials consistently label China a “peer competitor,” a framing that sets the stage for strategic confrontation. On the other side, Mitter pointed to the Chinese government’s unwavering statements on Taiwan, which the U.S. has increasingly pushed back against. The clash of narratives, he suggested, makes finding common ground exceptionally difficult.
Dr. Mitter then delved into the core structural issues underpinning the competition. On supply chains, he explained the tension between deep global reliance on Chinese manufacturing and the Western drive for “weaponized interdependence.” The question of talent and intellectual property, particularly in Artificial Intelligence, is at the heart of this. He outlined a divergence in AI development: a more top-down, government-driven model in China focused on societal integration and governance, versus a more commercialized, market-driven approach in the U.S. The climate and energy sector reveals another split; while China dominates industries like solar panel production, the U.S. and China have different visions for the green transition, with China betting on a mix of renewable and non-renewable sources to maintain its economic development. Furthermore, Dr. Mitter noted a significant relocation of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) away from China, signaling a reshaping of global capital flows in response to geopolitical risks.
Looking to the future, Dr. Mitter posed several provocative questions. He explored the possibility of a “reverse Nixon” moment—a U.S. realignment with Russia against China—but deemed it unlikely given the strong, mutually beneficial partnership that has solidified between Moscow and Beijing since the 2010s. More probable, he suggested, is a continued divergence on energy, scientific research, and ideology, with China’s model of “welfarist authoritarianism” gaining wider global influence. This could lead to a division of the world into Eastern and Western hemispheres of influence, though he noted Europe’s potential role as a third, normative power that sets regulatory standards for others.
During the Q&A session, these themes were further explored. On AI, Dr. Mitter elaborated that because the U.S. and China are often “not looking for the same thing” in AI development, direct competition is complex. He also suggested an AI bubble may be more likely in the U.S. due to massive stock market speculation. When asked if coexistence is possible without hegemonic conflict, Dr. Mitter observed that the current U.S. administration appears focused on managing economic interests and finding a “new assembly” for relations, despite internal disagreements. Finally, on FDI, he contrasted the long tradition of USAID with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), noting that China itself has become increasingly unhappy with the financial feedback from BRI, leading to an evolution in the nature of its overseas investments.
In closing, Dr. Mitter left the audience with a clear-eyed view of the challenges ahead. The relationship between the United States and China remains the world’s most consequential, defined by deep structural competition, ideological divergence, and a dangerous lack of shared narrative. While both sides have recently sought to avoid the most dire outcomes, the path forward is one of managed rivalry, where the avoidance of conflict is the primary, and most precarious, achievement.
