Threat Politics: Promise and Peril

Tuesday, July 29th

1:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET

There is no policy change without politics and no politics without persuasion. U.S. policymakers have a long bipartisan tradition of turning to fear to spur action, choosing to invoke threats—and sometimes inflate them — to influence the public, Congress, and foreign partners and adversaries. Why do politicians choose to emphasize or exaggerate threats? What forms of threat politics can we expect in an era of record polarization and how might they be used in efforts to address some of the greatest challenges facing the United States? Join Carnegie’s American Statecraft Program for the virtual launch of Brett Rosenberg’s new paper, “The Promise and Peril of Threat Politics.” Christopher S. Chivvis, Senior Fellow and Director of the American Statecraft Program, will moderate a conversation with Brett Rosenberg, Nonresident Scholar of the American Statecraft Program, Dominic Tierney, Claude C. Smith '14 Professor at Swarthmore College, Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Senior Fellow and Director of the Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics Program, Rachel Myrick, Associate Professor at Duke University, and Ryan Hass Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution.

The Middle East on Edge: What’s Next for Iran, Israel, and the Region

Tuesday, July 29th

6:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET

The Middle East conflict recently entered a new phase, with Iran and Israel engaging in direct military confrontation. The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marked a new escalation, but a fragile ceasefire has since been established. Will this U.S.-brokered ceasefire hold? Can, and will, Iran rebuild its nuclear capabilities? What are the broader implications of this war for regional stability, U.S. strategy, and global security? Join our panel of experts to discuss the latest developments in this conflict and their broader implications. Speakers at this event will include Rachel Bronson, Senior Advisor at the Bulletin of the Atomic Sciences, Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, and Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group's Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President. The discussion will be moderated by Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri.

Cuba At A Crossroads: Why U.S. Policy Still Matters

Wednesday, July 30th

12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET

The Cuban Revolution has reached a critical juncture. Despite decades of U.S. economic sanctions, Cuba maintains trade relations with nearly every other country, highlighting the limited global reach of the embargo. However, the Cuban government remains entrenched in an outdated and inefficient economic model that continues to stifle growth and innovation. President Trump’s renewed policy—outlined in the June 2025 National Security Presidential Memorandum—reinstates strict limits on U.S. tourism and financial transactions that benefit the Cuban government, while promoting support for civil society, internet access, and private enterprise. What are the outcomes and unintended consequences of the Trump Administration’s approach? How are other countries responding to Cuba’s economic crisis, and what does that mean for U.S. influence in the region? The World Affairs Council of Atlanta will speak with former U.S. diplomat and ACM Global founder, Amanda Mattingly, on this issue.

Breaking Out of Quarantine: Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

Thursday, July 31st

1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET

A potential blockade of Taiwan burst into the American consciousness in 2022 when China showed its displeasure about then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit by surrounding the island with missile impacts. This possibility was not a surprise to regional experts and the Taiwanese themselves, who had long been aware of this threat. Such a blockade would not just affect China, Taiwan, and the United States. The disruption of international trade, particularly restrictions on computer chip production, would affect every country on the planet. This report proposes a framework for understanding the range of blockade scenarios, analyzes them with a series of 23 wargames, and assesses the operational challenges that the respective parties would face in implementing and countering a blockade. The project does not argue that conflict, including a blockade, is inevitable or even necessarily likely. However, the project does argue that conflict is possible, given China’s commitment to reunification, using force if necessary, and its continuing military buildup. This project, therefore, concludes by proposing policy changes to better deter a blockade and to cope with one should it occur.

The Axis of Upheaval: Emerging Military Cooperation

Wednesday, July 30th

1:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET

One of the most transformative geopolitical developments in recent years has been the increasing alignment among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the deepening economic, military, and technological ties among these four countries have resulted in a new Axis of Upheaval—united by shared opposition to a U.S.-led global order. Join the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) for a virtual event with distinguished experts on Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to explore the growing collaboration between these powers, as well as implications for the United States and its allies. Speakers will include Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer at CNAS, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Program Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS, Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and David McKenzie, Communications Director at CNAS.

The Trump Administration & Latin America

Thursday, July 31st

3:00 PM ET

Join Professor Abraham Lowenthal, Emeritus Professor of International Relations at USC and Professor Jane Jaquette, Emeritus Professor of Politics and Diplomacy at Occidental College for a timely Zoom webinar examining Latin America's multifaceted responses to Trump administration policies. From Brazil's deepening economic ties with China amid U.S. trade tensions, to Mexico's pushback against import bans, and the controversial rebranding of the Gulf of Mexico, this discussion delves into the region's strategic shifts and diplomatic recalibrations in the face of evolving U.S. foreign policy.